Prof. Dr. Douglas Maraun

Head of the former working group Statistical Climatology and Extreme Events

new affiliation at University of Graz


E-Mail: dmaraun(at)




Research Interests

  • Regional climate change
  • Extreme precipitation: variability, trends, causes
  • Validation of climate models
  • Statistical downscaling
  • Climate variability


  • Chair of the European research network VALUE (EU COST Action ES1102)
  • Member of the Executive Board of CORDEX-ESD, the WCRP initiative on statistical downscaling
  • PI of the international research project CE:LLO on modelling compound extreme events (Volkswagen Foundation)
  • PI of the international research project PLEIADES addressing the downscaling of precipitation extremes (Volkswagen Foundation)
  • PI of the German-Russian joint research group EUREX addressing extreme events in Northern Europe and Russia (Helmholtz Association)
  • Co-PI of the project Extreme Events in Hesse as part of the INKLIM project (Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, finished)
  • Associate editor of the journal Nonlinear Processes in Geophyiscs (2010-2015)
  • Review editor of the journal Climate Research


Reviewed Publications in International Scientific Journals


[31] D. Maraun and M. Widmann: The representation of location by a regional climate model in complex terrain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19: 3449-3456, 2015. 

[30] E.P. Meredith, V.A. Semenov, D. Maraun, W. Park and A.V. Chernokulsky: Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krysk precipitation extreme, Nature Geoscience 8: 615-619, 2015 (Highlighted by Nature, also see News and Views article by F.E.L. Otto).

[29] I. Hobaeck-Haff, A. Frigessi and D. Maraun: How well do regional climate models simulate the spatial dependence of precipitation? An application of pair-copula constructions, J. Geophys. Res. 120(7): 2624-2646, 2015.

[28] C. Volosciuk, D. Maraun, V. Semenov and W. Park. Extreme Precipitation in an Atmosphere General Circulation Model: Impact of Horizontal and Vertical Model Resolution,  J. Climate 28(3): 1184-1205, 2015.

[27] D. Maraun, M. Widmann, J.M. Gutierrez, S. Kotlarski, R.E. Chandler, E. Hertig, J. Wibig, R. Huth and R. Wilcke, VALUE - A framework to validate downscaling approaches for climate change studies, Earth's Future 3(1): 1-14, 2015.


[26] J.M. Eden, M. Widmann, D. Maraun and M. Vrac: Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 11040-11053, 2014.

[25] G. Wong, D. Maraun, M. Vrac, M. Widmann, J.M. Eden and T. Kent. Stochastic model output statistics for bias correcting and downscaling precipitation including extremes, J. Climate 27:6940-6959, 2014. 

[24] D. Maraun. Reply to comment on "Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping and Downscaling. Revisiting the Inflation Issue". J. Climate 27:1821-1825, 2014. 


[23] A.Y. Karpechko, D. Maraun and V. Eyring. Improving Antarctic Total Ozone Projections by a Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Ensemble Regression. J. Atmos.Sci. 70(12): 3959-3976, 2013.

[22] D. Maraun. Bias Correction, Quantile Mapping and Downscaling. Revisiting the Inflation Issue. J. Climate 26:2137-2143, 2013. 

[21] D. Maraun. When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett. 8 014004, 2013.


[20] A. Schindler, D. Maraun, A. Toreti and J. Luterbacher. Changes in the annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the British Isles within the 21st century. Env. Res. Lett. 7 044029, 2012. Selected as journal highlight.

[19] A. Schindler, D. Maraun and J. Luterbacher: Validation of the present day annual cycle in heavy precipitation over the British Islands simulated by 14 RCMs. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D18107, 2012.

[18] D. Maraun: Nonstationarities of regional climate model biases in European seasonal mean temperature and precipitation sums. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06706, 2012

[17] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and H.W. Rust: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part II: climate model validation, Clim. Dynam. 39:287-301, 2012


[16] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and H.W. Rust: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part I: observed spatio-temporal relations, Clim. Dynam. 36(1-2), 261-275, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9, 2011


[15] D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, A.M. Ireson, R.E. Chandler, E.J. Kendon, M. Widmann, S. Brienen, H.W. Rust, T. Sauter, M. Themessl, V.K.C. Venema, K.P. Chun, C.M. Goodess, R.G. Jones, C. Onof, M. Vrac and I. Thiele-Eich: Precipitation Downscaling under climate change. Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG3003, DOI: 10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010

[14] A. Toreti, F.G. Kuglisch, E. Xoplaki, D. Maraun, H. Wanner and J. Luterbacher: Characterization of extreme winter precipitation in the Mediterranean and associated anomalous atmospheric patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10, 1037-1050, 2010

[13] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and T.J. Osborn: Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes. Development and validation of a vector generalised linear model , Extremes 13, 133-153, DOI: 10.1007/s10687-010-0102-x, 2010


[12] H.W. Rust, D. Maraun and T.J. Osborn: Modelling Seasonality in Extreme Precipitation. A UK case study, European Physical Journal Special Topics 174, 99-111, 2009

[11] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and T.J. Osborn: The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the UK: a model based on extreme value statistics, Int. J. Climatol.29(12), 1731-1744, 2009


[10] D. Maraun, T.J. Osborn and N.P. Gillett: United Kingdom Daily Precipitation Intensity: Improved Early Data, Error Estimates and an Update from 2000 to 2006, Int. J. Climatol. 28(6), 833-842, 2008


[9] B. Schaefli, D. Maraun and M. Holschneider: What drives high flow events in the Swiss Alps? Recent developments in wavelet spectral analysis and their application to hydrology, Adv. Wat. Resour. 30(12), 2511-2525 , 2007

NB! There are errors in ref [19] in the paper. The correct reference is the previous publication [8] in this list here:

[8] D. Maraun, J. Kurths and M. Holschneider: Nonstationary Gaussian Processes in Wavelet Domain: Synthesis, Estimation and Significance Testing. Phys. Rev. E 75, 016707, 2007


[7] J. Saynisch, J. Kurths and D. Maraun: A Conceptual ENSO Model under Realistic Noise Forcing, Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13, 275-285, 2006


[6] D. Maraun and J. Kurths: Epochs of Phase Coherence between El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15709, doi:10.1029/2005GL023225, 2005


[5] S. Rahmstorf, D. Archer, D.S. Ebel, O. Eugster, J. Jouzel, D. Maraun, U. Neu, G.A. Schmidt, J. Severinghaus, A.J. Weaver and J. Zachos: Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate", Eos, Trans. AGU, 85(48), 511, 2004

[4] D. Maraun, H.W. Rust and J. Timmer: Tempting long-memory. On the interpretation of DFA results, Nonlin. Proc. Geoph. 11(4), 495-503, 2004

[3] D. Maraun and J. Kurths: Cross Wavelet Analysis. Significance Testing and Pitfalls, Nonlin. Proc. Geoph. 11(4), 505-514, 2004

[2] S. Rahmstorf, D. Archer, D.S. Ebel, O. Eugster, J. Jouzel, D. Maraun, U. Neu, G.A. Schmidt, J. Severinghaus, A.J. Weaver and J. Zachos: Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate, Eos, Trans. AGU, 85(4), 38, 41, 2004

[1] D. Maraun, W. Horbelt, H.W. Rust, J. Timmer, H.P. Happersberger and F. Drepper: Identification of rate constants and non-observable absorption spectra in nonlinear biochemical reaction dynamics, Int. J. Bif. Chaos 14, 2081-2092, 2004




[4] D. Maraun, J. Kurths and M. Holschneider: Continuous wavelet spectral analysis of climate dynamics. In: Analysis and Control of Complex Nonlinear Processes in Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Lecture Notes in Complex Systems, Vol. 5, 2007


[3] D. Maraun: What Can We Learn from Climate Data? Methods for Fluctuation, Time/Scale and Phase Analysis, PhD thesis, University of Potsdam, 2006

[2] P.M. Crowley, D. Maraun and D. Mayes: How hard is the euro area core? A wavelet analysis of growth cycles in Germany, France and Italy. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, 18, 2006


[1] D. Maraun: Parameterschätzung in nichtlinearen Proteinfaltungsdynamiken, Diploma thesis, University of Freiburg, 2002







University of Gießen




University of Potsdam




University of Ulm, University of Freiburg, NTNU Trondheim/Norway

Studies of Electrical Engineering and Physics


Scientific Career

seit 1/2011


GEOMAR (former Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences)




Institute for Geography, University of Gießen

Akademischer Rat


Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Senior Research Associate


Nonlinear Dynamics, University of Potsdam



Nonlinear Dynamics, University of Potsdam

PhD student


Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen








Review Article on precipitation downscaling