North Atlantic climate: predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change


ACRONYM
NACLIM
Title
North Atlantic climate: predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change
General information
NACLIM aims at investigating and quantifying the predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice variability and change on seasonal to decadal time scales. SST and sea-ice forcing have a crucial impact on weather and climate in Europe. Rather than running climate forecasts ourselves, we will analyze the multi-model decadal prediction experiments currently performed as part of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and critically assess the quality of predictions of the near-future state of key oceanic and atmospheric quantities relevant to the SST and sea-ice distribution and the related climate. Long-term observations of relevant ocean parameters will be carried out, necessary to assess the forecast skill of the model-based prediction results. We will identify those observations that are key to the quality of the prediction and in turn optimize the present observing system. We will quantify the impact of North Atlantic/European climate change on high trophic levels of the oceanic ecosystem as well as on urban societies.
Start November, 2012 End January, 2017
Funding (total) 8,598 T€ Funding (GEOMAR) 786 T€
Funding body EU Programme FP7 Environment; Collaborative Project
Coordination Universität Hamburg (UHH), Germany
Contact Johannes Karstensen
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