Quantification of Natural Climate Variability in the Atmosphere-Hydroshere System with Data Constrained Simulations

Quantification of Natural Climate Variability in the Atmosphere-Hydroshere System with Data Constrained Simulations
A quantification of natural variability of the atmosphere-hydrosphere system is essential to reliably estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the recent global warming and to improve the accuracy of climate predictions. This project aims to separate and quantify the natural contribution to climate variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales by utilizing various types of geodetic monitoring data and complementary unconstrained and constrained numerical models of the atmosphere-hydrosphere system. A state-of-the-art atmospheric model from FUB including physical and chemical processes from the troposphere to the upper atmosphere will be implemented within this proposed research group and will contribute to the development of an Earth system model at GFZ to be designed for a broad interpretation and utilization of geodetic monitoring data. The sun is the fundamental energy source of the climate system. Hence solar variability is one potential source of natural climate change. Investigations will start with decadal variations of solar irradiance in chemistry-climate models of the atmosphere and will be systematically complemented with other natural variability processes, e.g., ENSO. This also means adding new model components, i.e., the ocean and the continental hydrosphere. Geodetic monitoring data, such as gravity and magnetic fields, sea level changes, rotational variations and surface deformations, reflect geophysical aspects of both natural and anthropogenic climate change and will be applied to validate and constrain the atmospheric model. The interdisciplinary innovative approach brings together the expertise in atmospheric modeling at FUB with the competence in Earth monitoring and hydrosphere-solid Earth modeling at GFZ. The use of precise geodetic monitoring data for climate studies, the application of state-of-the-art models of the Earth's subsystems including their complex interactions provides a unique tool that will contribute to the vision of a consistent integration and assimilation of monitoring data into a complex coupled Earth system model at GFZ. The investigations will account for the challenging task of a quantitative separation of naturally and anthropogenically induced variations in the monitoring data. Furthermore, the project will reduce the uncertainty of future climate predictions in forthcoming ozone assessments of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
Januar 2012
Dezember 2015
Bewilligungssumme (gesamt)
Bewilligungssumme (GEOMAR)
Zuwendungsgeber / Programm
    Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft / Impuls- und Vernetzungsfonds / Helmholtz Young Investigator Group