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Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project 2

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated for and endorsed by CMIP6. In the new phase of CDRMIP we propose 3 types of experiments, with the following research questions and objectives:

schematics for theme 1

1. Asymmetry in Earth system responses to emissions vs removal pulses

  • Compare asymmetry of temperature and Earth system responses to emissions and removals
  • Disentangle the contribution from the transient disequilibrium
  • Determine asymmetry dependency on background climate state
  • Inform simple climate model and emulator communities for an improved representation of Earth system responses to removal activities

 

Tier 1: Using esm-piControl and esm-flat10, at 0 PgC and 1000 PgC emitted, we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be removed from the atmosphere, and emitted to the atmosphere at 1000 PgC

Tier 2: Using esm-flat10, at 2000 PgC emitted, we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere, as well as a zero emissions simulation; additionally using esm-flat10-cdr, at 1000 PgC emitted, we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere

Tier 3: Using esm-flat10, at 1000 PgC and 2000 PgC emitted, we request a pulse of 500 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere

visualization for theme 2

2. CO2 removal efficiency of individual, activity-driven CDR measures for varying climates 
 

  • Investigate activity-driven implementations of CDR activities that are currently considered within ambitious mitigation scenarios
  • Quantify CDR efficiency of a given activity-driven CDR implementation under net-zero
  • Assess Earth system response including biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects
  • Determine efficiency dependency on background climate state

 

Tier 1: prescribing CO2 concentrations from both the esm-flat10-zec scenario and an extended esm-flat10 scenario, we request to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, AR, OAE

Tier 3: prescribing CO2 concentrations from both the esm-flat10-zec scenario and an extended esm-flat10 scenario, we request to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on other CDR options (DOR, MOS, ERW, …)

visualization for theme 3

3. Activity-driven CDR implementations of IAM-developed scenarios

  • Evaluate impacts and uncertainty of resolving activity-driven BECCS in an ambitious mitigation future scenario with a high overshoot
  • Quantify mismatch between IAMs and ESMs in a multi-model context

Tier 1: we request to re-run the ScenarioMIP-LN (Low-to-Negative) experiment produced by AIM with activity-driven BECCS, while omitting negative BECCS emissions in the ESM forcing

Tier 2: we suggest to run a new version of ScenarioMIP-LN (Low-to-Negative) produced by REMIND-MAgPIE experiment with activity-driven OAE

 

 

  • Asymmetry in Earth system responses to emissions vs removal pulses at varying climate states

    Tier 1: 

    • from esm-piControl (i.e. at 0 PgC emitted), we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be removed from the atmosphere, over the course of a year
    • after 100 years of esm-flat10 (i.e. at 1000 PgC emitted), we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere, over the course of a year

    Tier 2:

    • after 200 years of esm-flat10 (i.e. at 2000 PgC emitted), we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere, over the course of a year
    • after 100 years of esm-flat10-cdr (i.e. at 1000 PgC budget), we request a pulse of 300 PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere, over the course of a year
    • we request also 100 years zero emissions experiments at both points of branching

    Tier 3: 

    • we request 500 PgC emissions and removal pulses from esm-flat10 at 1000 PgC and 2000 PgC emitted, over the course of a year

    CO2 removal efficiency of individual, activity-driven CDR measures for varying climates 

    Tier 1: 

    • prescribing CO2 concentrations from esm-flat10-zec, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, AR, OAE
      • BECCS and AR require simulating the esm-flat10 with a historical compressed land-use pattern, followed by esm-flat10-zec with constant land-use pattern for 100 years
      • BECCS is implemented during the phase of zero emissions by converting a percentage of all agricultural area (cropland and pasture) and grassland to BECCS within the first year of implementation with the goal to reach a total area of 400 Mha
      • BECCS is implemented during the phase of zero emissions by converting a percentage of all agricultural area (cropland and pasture) and grassland to dominant forest type, within the first year of implementation with the goal to reach a total area of 400 Mha of afforested and reforested areas
      • OAE is implemented by annually repeating coastal uniform additions of alkalinity following the OAEMIP mask, where alkalinity is added within 300 km from the shore or above 1000 m water depth, whichever occurs first, excluding ice-covered areas
    • prescribing CO2 concentrations from an extended esm-flat10 for another 100 years, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, AR, OAE, in the same way described for the simulations based on esm-flat10-zec

    Tier 3: 

    • adding more CDR options (DOR, MOS, ERW, …)

    Activity-driven CDR implementations of IAM-developed scenarios

    Tier 1: 

    • we request to re-run the ScenarioMIP-LN (Low-to-Negative) experiment with activity-driven BECCS (i.e., yields from bioenergy crops will be stored in permanent carbon pool), while omitting negative BECCS emissions in the ESM forcing

    Tier 2: 

    • we request to run the ScenarioMIP-LN (low to negative) experiment with activity-driven OAE (i.e. including gross emissions from calcification and spatially resolved OAE implementation)
      • this experiment requires two additional no-OAE counterfactual baselines simulations together with this scenario to isolate CDR efficiency from the gross system removal including carbon and climate feedbacks: an emissions-driven scenario without OAE, a concentration-driven scenario without OAE with atmospheric CO2 concentration  prescribed from the scenario simulation in which OAE is explicitly represented