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Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated for and endorsed by CMIP6. In the new phase of CDRMIP we propose 3 types of experiments, with the following research questions and objectives:

Schematic showing the cumulative emissions expected from the experiment

1. Asymmetry in Earth system responses to emissions vs removal pulses

  • Compare asymmetry of temperature and Earth system responses to emissions and removals
  • Disentangle the contribution from the transient disequilibrium
  • Determine asymmetry dependency on background climate state

 

Tier 1: Using esm-flat10, at 1000PgC and 2000PgC emitted, we suggest a pulse of 500PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere

Tier 2: Using esm-flat10, at 750PgC and 1500PgC emitted, we suggest a pulse of 500PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere; we also suggest removal from the surface ocean on ice free areas

Expected emissions from the LN scenarios, including net and gross emissions

2. Activity-driven CDR implementations of IAM-developed scenarios

  • Evaluate impacts and uncertainty of resolving activity-driven BECCS in an ambitious mitigation future scenario
  • Quantify mismatch between IAMs and ESMs in a multi-model context
  • Estimate OAE climate-carbon effect, and removal efficiency per unit of OAE implemented

 

Tier 1: we suggest to re-run the ScenarioMIP-LN (low to negative) experiment produced by AIM with activity-driven BECCS, while omitting negative BECCS emissions in the ESM forcing

Tier 2: we suggest to run a new version of ScenarioMIP-LN (low to negative) produced by REMIND-MAgPIE experiment with activity-driven OAE

Schematic showing emissions from flat-10-zec as well as from each individual CDR technique

3. CO2 removal effectiveness of individual CDR measures for varying climates

  • Quantify CDR effectiveness of a given activity-driven CDR implementation under net-zero
  • Assess Earth system response including biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects
  • Determine effectiveness dependency on background climate state
  • Increase ESM literacy of activity-driven CDR implementations

 

Tier 1: prescribing CO2 concentrations from both the esm-flat10-zec scenario and an extended esm-flat10 scenario, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, A/R, OAE

Tier 3: prescribing CO2 concentrations from both the esm-flat10-zec scenario and an extended esm-flat10 scenario, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on other CDR options (DOR, MOS, ERW, …)

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  • Asymmetry in Earth system responses to emissions vs. removal pulses

    Tier 1: 

    • after 100 years of esm-flat10 (i.e. at 1000PgC emitted), we suggest a pulse of 500PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere
    • after 200 years of esm-flat10 (i.e. at 1000PgC emitted), we suggest a pulse of 500PgC to be emitted to and removed from the atmosphere

    Tier 2: 

    • same pulses but removal from the surface ocean
    • same pulses from different climate states (750 and 1500 PgC emitted)

     

    Activity-driven CDR implementations of IAM-developed scenarios

    Tier 1: 

    • we suggest to re-run the ScenarioMIP-LN (low to negative) experiment with activity-driven BECCS (i.e., yields from bioenergy crops will be stored in permanent carbon pool), while omitting negative BECCS emissions in the ESM forcing

    Tier 2: 

    • we suggest to run the ScenarioMIP-LN (low to negative) experiment with activity-driven OAE (i.e. including gross emissions from calcification and spatially resolved OAE implementation)

     

    CO2 removal effectiveness of individual CDR measures for varying climates

    Tier 1: 

    • prescribing CO2 concentrations from esm-flat10-zec, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, A/R, OAE
      • BECCS and A/R require simulating the esm-flat10 with a historical compressed land-use pattern, and convert agricultural land to BECCS or dominant forest type, respectively
      • OAE is implemented by annually repeating coastal uniform additions of alkalinity
    • prescribing CO2 concentrations from an extended esm-flat10, we suggest to add activity-driven CDR implementations, with a focus on BECCS, A/R, OAE
      • BECCS and A/R require simulating the esm-flat10 with a historical compressed land-use pattern, and convert agricultural land to BECCS or dominant forest type, respectively
      • OAE is implemented by annually repeating coastal uniform additions of alkalinity

    Tier 3: 

    • adding more CDR options (DOR, MOS, ERW, …)

     

    Full overview of experiments can be found on https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RIXRF_F6XbAEKG3FjIEypAcKbvvIUkq1/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=104504685072813825269&rtpof=true&sd=true