Modellvergleichende Analyse von CDR Methoden (CDR-MIA)


Title
Modellvergleichende Analyse von CDR Methoden (CDR-MIA)
General information
Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. In response, there is increasing focus and study on the potential of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methods to enable negative emissions to complement CO2 emission mitigation efforts. However, the potentially positive and negative impacts in response to large-scale CDR remain poorly quantified and elucidated. The main aim of this project is to analyze the output from the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDR-MIP) phase 1 experiments to better assess the potential, and risks of large-scale CDR. CDR-MIP is a new initiative that brings together a suite of Earth System Models in a common framework to investigate CDR. The 1st phase of CDR-MIP, which includes two idealized experiments of direct CO2 air-capture, as well as afforestation and ocean alkalinization ones, is designed to investigate key questions concerning (a) climate reversibility, in the context of using CDR to return high future atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a lower (e.g., present day or pre-industrial) level and (b) the potential efficacy, feedbacks, time scales, and side effects of different CDR methods. While a significant amount of work has gone into designing CDR-MIP and a number of modeling groups from around the world have agreed to run the simulations, the project is currently entirely voluntary. Thus, it is unlikely that the model output will be quickly utilized. Dedicated funding is therefore needed to ensure the timely analysis of data and its public dissemination. We propose to also use the results of these analyses to better constrain the assumed effectiveness of CDR technologies in the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)-generated Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios that are used to facilitate climate change research and assessment. Currently, carbon cycle feedbacks are not accounted for when CDR is included in IAM simulations and there is an urgent need to fill this knowledge gap. We propose to do this by using the results from the CDR-MIP analyses to calculate a carbon cycle feedback based discount factor for CDR that will then be used to calibrate and re-run a SSP scenario with an IAM. In addition to this, new experiments will also be designed, run, and evaluated to investigate the response of the carbon cycle and climate system to the simultaneous implementation of multiple CDR methods. These experiments will build upon the CDR-MIP ones by combining some of the methods, such as afforestation and artificial ocean alkalinization. Subsequent analyses will allow the efficacy and risks of combined CDR to be compared to that of the individual implementations. Results of this project will provide a comprehensive assessment of CDR that can be discussed iteratively with partner projects in the SPP. Results of the analyses will also be made available to other projects participating in the SPP.
Start June, 2016 End May, 2019
Funding (total) - Funding (GEOMAR) 216 T€
Funding body DFG Programme SPP 1698 Climate Engineering
Contact David Keller
Partners Nico Bauer (PIK)

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