11.04.2016: FB1-Seminar

11:00 h, Hörsaal, Düsternbrooker Weg 20

Abstract:

The beginning of the 21^st century, the warmest epoch on Earth in instrumental observation record, was characterized by a number of unprecedented weather extremes, in particular in Northern Eurasia. A change of the mean of a weather variable probability distribution function may not alone explain the observed events. The mechanisms involved are usually related to atmosphere dynamics and often may lead to non-linear response of the extreme events characteristics to steadily growing surface temperatures. A shortness of the recent warm period does not allow inferring about global warming contribution based on empirical data only. This motivates a study of such events using global and regional climate models. In this talk, some physical mechanisms leading to increasing magnitude and occurrence of weather extremes are discussed. Several case studies are considered that include the increased occurrence of cold winters in Northern Eurasia, precipitation extremes in Europe and Russia, and the record strong Russian heat wave of 2010. It is shown that for some cases, a feasible mechanisms linking extremes to global warming may be distinguished. At the time, as the empirical data analysis imply, the issue of extreme events attribution still remains very uncertain.

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